Much has been written in this blog about the use of LendingPatterns™ in uncovering loan production opportunities (for example, here).  Within metro areas, activity levels can change so drastically over time that you need a fast and easy way to create trend analysis.

Curious LendingPatterns™ users, especially those researching performance context for Community Reinvestment Act self-assessments, will come across demographic information and inevitably think of questions that LendingPatterns™ can answer. For example, I was reading a recent newspaper article on the 50 MSAs that are losing the most population due to migration to other parts of the US. I had a thought: What if we look at the mortgage market activity in some of these metro areas to see if it is declining, and if so, how drastically? Market direction information can assist with allocating loan production resources.

Metro Areas Analyzed

I honed in on the four metros which between 2010 and 2017 experienced a net decrease due to migration, experienced negative population growth, and where the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. Those metros were:

  • Johnstown, PA
  • Binghamton, NY
  • Charleston, WV
  • Youngstown, OH

Figure 1: Four metros mapped

The latest figures from LendingPatterns™ show that these metros combine for 1.2 million people. LendingPatterns™ allows you to quickly see what has happened in the mortgage market in these metros, going back to 2004.

Figure 2: LendingPatterns™ interface showing where to find market direction reports

It turns out that it hasn’t been pretty. The dollar volume of originated loans fell from $3.4B to $1.9B (a 44% drop), while the number of originated loans fell from 42,158 to 17,913 (a 58% drop).

Figure 3: LendingPatterns™ chart showing downward trend